Washington and Tehran are currently projecting conflicting signals regarding the trajectory of their eight-month-old conflict, oscillating between the possibility of renewed military strikes and potential peace negotiations. According to reports from The Wall Street Journal on Thursday, Admiral Brad Cooper, the head of United States Central Command (CENTCOM), has briefed President Donald Trump on options for launching new attacks against Iran. This comes amid reports from The New York Times that the United States and Israel have formulated joint plans to execute strikes following the November 3 midterm elections.
Simultaneously, the administration appears to be maintaining a diplomatic channel. The Washington Post reported that Vice President JD Vance has extended an offer to meet in person with Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, to discuss ending the war. Qatari mediators reportedly returned to Tehran on Friday to coordinate talks with the United States. These efforts, according to The New York Times, include a proposal for direct negotiations with Iran's nuclear programme serving as a primary agenda item.
Operational movements suggest that the United States is preparing for various contingencies. Reports from the Israeli public broadcaster Kan indicate that ten US military cargo planes landed at Israeli air bases in the Negev region on Thursday. Further military assets have been deployed to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Additionally, the United States has reportedly strengthened air defences and relocated certain troops from bases considered vulnerable to potential Iranian retaliation. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, who stated he was briefed on these military plans, has warned that the strategy could lead to a significant escalation.
Analysts are questioning the potential effectiveness of Vice President Vance's outreach. Rouzbeh Parsi, an Iran analyst at Lund University, noted that while Vance is viewed as a less volatile voice within the administration, there is doubt regarding his influence over President Trump's ultimate decisions. Furthermore, Nader Hashemi of Georgetown University suggested that because political decisions in Iran are made collectively, focusing on a single official like Rezaei may be insufficient for a breakthrough.
Security and defence analyst Wolfgang Pusztai argued that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains the primary decision-making body in Tehran. Pusztai noted that since the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in earlier stages of the conflict, his successor lacks the same level of influence, making the IRGC's endorsement essential for any meaningful agreement. Pusztai suggested that sustained pressure might lead Iranian leadership to consider that regime survival is better served by abandoning nuclear ambitions and moderating their foreign policy.
However, the prospect of a deal remains fraught with obstacles. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, that any progress is contingent upon Iran's seven conditions being met. These include the lifting of international sanctions, the cessation of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, security guarantees against future US-Israeli strikes, and the unfreezing of Iranian assets. Ghalibaf further asserted that a 'carrot-and-stick' approach is ineffective against the current regime.
Despite the rhetoric, Vice President Vance indicated to Fox News on Thursday that the administration intends to avoid what he termed a 'forever war.' As the November 3 election approaches, the dual strategy of military posturing and diplomatic engagement continues to define the US approach. According to King’s College London associate professor Andreas Krieg, the very existence of the offer for direct talks implies that the United States may be reconsidering the potential for a peaceful resolution, even as military assets are being positioned across the region.
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