India’s estimated tuberculosis (TB) incidence is notably absent from the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Global TB Report 2026. Although the country continues to account for approximately 25% of the global disease burden, the WHO dataset indicates that official estimates for India are currently under review pending the finalization of data from a recent district-level sentinel surveillance exercise. Revised estimates for the country are expected to be published in early 2027.
The uncertainty stems from a population-level TB disease prevalence survey conducted in 2025 across 50 representative districts. According to Dr. Katherine Floyd, Unit Head at the WHO’s Department for HIV, TB, Hepatitis, and STIs, the data is currently undergoing a process of finalization to determine if it is comparable to the previous national prevalence survey conducted in 2020-2021. Experts suggest that while national surveys are the gold standard for calculation, they are resource-intensive, whereas district-level surveillance offers a more sustainable model that can be repeated more frequently to track trends.
Despite the lack of incidence estimates, the WHO report provides confirmed figures regarding India's diagnosed cases and mortality. In 2025, India reported 25.3 lakh diagnosed TB cases, with 2.63 lakh deaths attributed to the infection. These figures mark a decrease from 2024, when the country reported 26.18 lakh cases and over 3 lakh deaths. Additionally, India has achieved a 38% reduction in TB mortality since 2015, meeting a key WHO “End TB” milestone, albeit five years behind the original schedule.
Key facts
- India accounts for roughly 25% of the global tuberculosis disease burden.
- The WHO 2026 report estimates 10.6 million people fell ill with TB globally in 2025.
- India recorded 25.3 lakh diagnosed TB cases and 2.63 lakh deaths during 2025.
- TB mortality in India has declined by 38% since the 2015 baseline.
- Revised Indian incidence estimates are expected to be released in early 2027.
Why it matters
The gap between estimated incidence and officially reported cases is a critical metric used to identify undiagnosed and untreated individuals who may continue to spread the infection. The upcoming revised estimates are expected by some experts to reflect a lower incidence rate, partially attributed to the efficacy of the national TB program.
Background
India previously relied on national surveillance surveys conducted between 1955-1958 and 2020-2021 to establish incidence benchmarks. The government has shifted to a district-level surveillance methodology to provide more frequent updates on disease prevalence.
Source: Indian Express, Hindustan Times
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