The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a weather forecast indicating significant activity across the country between November 11 and November 16. A western disturbance is set to cause rain and snowfall in the western Himalayan region, while southern India prepares for another spell of heavy rainfall triggered by a developing system in the Bay of Bengal.
According to the IMD, isolated to fairly widespread rain and snowfall are expected in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand until November 13. Heavy precipitation is specifically forecast for parts of the Kashmir Valley on November 12. Following this period, scattered rainfall is expected in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad from November 14 to 16, while Himachal Pradesh may see similar conditions throughout the week. Punjab is also likely to experience isolated to scattered rain between November 12 and 16.
In southern India, rainfall has been concentrated in coastal and delta districts. The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) reported that intense rain is expected to continue in southern Tamil Nadu until November 12, with Thoothukudi and Ramanathapuram districts receiving heavy showers. Kayalpattinam recorded 11 cm of rainfall in a 24-hour period ending on Monday morning. While Chennai may receive light rain until November 11, the RMC expects a shift in weather activity across the state starting November 15.
This expected increase in rainfall is linked to a fresh system developing over the southeastern Bay of Bengal around November 13. The IMD notes this system is likely to intensify, potentially influencing weather across the region. Consequently, heavy rainfall alerts have been issued for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal for November 15 and 16, with Kerala and Mahe also expected to receive heavy rain on November 16.
Key facts
- A low-pressure area is expected to form over the southeastern Bay of Bengal around November 13, 2026.
- Heavy rainfall is forecast for Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal on November 15 and 16.
- Kayalpattinam in Thoothukudi recorded 11 cm of rainfall in the 24 hours ending Monday morning.
- A western disturbance will bring rain and snow to Himalayan states until November 13.
- Kerala and Mahe are expected to receive heavy rainfall on November 16.
Why it matters
The upcoming weather systems are expected to change rainfall distribution across various states. While the western Himalayas prepare for snow, residents in southern coastal areas should monitor local updates as the developing system in the Bay of Bengal may impact regional weather patterns from the middle of the week.
Background
The recent weather in parts of Tamil Nadu was influenced by an upper air cyclonic circulation over the Comorin area. In Chennai, the lingering effects of Deepavali smoke were observed due to calm winds and temperature changes until wind speeds increased on Monday morning.
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