Farm fires in Punjab and Haryana reached their highest daily count of the season on Diwali, according to recent satellite observations. While official counts indicated a sharp decline by November 9, new empirical estimates suggest the actual number of incidents is significantly higher than what is currently being recorded.
Hiren Jethva, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, noted that current figures represent a substantial undercount. By utilizing an empirical adjustment based on the VIIRS 375-meter fire-count baseline and integrating data from multiple satellite sources including NOAA-20 VIIRS and Aqua MODIS, Jethva calculated that the total number of fires in the two states reached approximately 34,000 by November 9.
The intensity of the burning season has been marked by a rapid increase in detected activity. Data from the Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) INSAT-3DS satellite showed that fire counts began rising significantly after October 29, reaching 447 on November 8. The daily average for the week leading up to November 9 was 12.5 times higher than the average recorded in the first week of November.
Regarding the impact on air quality, the north-westerly winds that transport smoke from the fields toward Delhi slackened following the festival, providing temporary relief for the capital. However, weather forecasts indicate these winds are expected to return on Wednesday and Thursday.
Key facts
- An empirical estimate puts the total number of farm fires at approximately 34,000 by November 9.
- Satellite data from INSAT-3DS recorded 447 farm fires on Diwali, November 8.
- NASA’s MODIS satellite model previously predicted about 14,000 fires for the 2026 season.
- Smoke-carrying winds moving toward Delhi are forecast to return on Wednesday and Thursday.
- Detection discrepancies arise because satellite observations may miss activity shifting to later hours of the day.
Why it matters
The return of north-westerly winds later this week is expected to increase the transport of smoke toward Delhi. The potential undercounting of fire events suggests that the actual contribution of stubble burning to regional air quality degradation may be more severe than current official tallies imply.
Source: Hindustan Times
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