The Indian stock market marked the commencement of Samvat 2083 with a cautious start as the symbolic Muhurat trading session concluded with marginal losses. Both the BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 finished in the red, effectively ending a notable eight-year streak of positive closes during Diwali trading sessions that had persisted since 2018. Despite the indices falling during the session, investor wealth saw a significant surge, increasing by Rs 2.60 lakh crore to reach a total of Rs 5,06,87,267.96 crore.
During the special session, the Nifty-50 declined 0.18 percent to settle at 24,986.40. The index had initially opened higher at 25,070 and reached an intraday high of 25,132 before slipping below the psychological barrier of 25,000. This year's Muhurat session followed a volatile period in the markets, coming immediately after a record-breaking seven-day rally that saw both indices gain over 10 percent. In those seven sessions, the Sensex rose by 7,781.99 points, or 10.62 percent, while the Nifty climbed 2,331.5 points, or 10.27 percent.
Reflecting on the preceding year, Samvat 2082 was defined by negative returns, with the BSE Sensex closing down over 4 percent and the Nifty50 ending with a decline of over 3 percent compared to the previous year’s Muhurat. Analysts at Motilal Oswal described Samvat 2082 as a period of macro-shocks rather than earnings-shocks. Factors such as geopolitical tensions in West Asia, elevated crude oil prices, uncertainty regarding US trade policies, and persistent selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) significantly dampened sentiment.
Specific concerns, including developments in artificial intelligence, led to selling pressure in IT stocks, according to Somil Mehta, Head of Retail Research at Mirae Asset Sharekhan. Neeraj Gaurh, Director and Fund Manager at Anand Rathi AMC, noted that the US-Israel-Iran conflict drove crude prices above $110, while weakening the rupee and contributing to record Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) selling of approximately Rs 3 lakh crore. Despite these challenges, domestic institutional investment remained strong, supported by record Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributions of Rs 32,490 crore and a resilient domestic economy with 7.8 percent growth in the first quarter of FY27.
Looking toward Samvat 2083, market experts maintain a positive outlook. Somil Mehta suggested that the markets are expected to recover gradually, supported by improving corporate earnings, infrastructure spending, and the country's long-term growth potential. Neeraj Gaurh anticipates that the upcoming year will be driven by earnings growth rather than valuation multiples, projecting index returns in the low teens. Motilal Oswal expects a return to double-digit earnings growth, forecasting Nifty EPS growth of 16 percent and 14 percent for FY27 and FY28, respectively.
Regarding investment strategy, analysts advise a cautious and disciplined approach. Mehta recommended that investors utilize market corrections to accumulate shares of quality companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, emphasizing the importance of diversification. Gaurh suggested that investors should prioritize large-cap stocks and select mid-caps while keeping small-cap exposure light. He further advised focusing on private banks, manufacturing, and discretionary consumption, while remaining selective in the IT and real estate sectors.
As the market moves forward, key factors to monitor include the Reserve Bank of India’s rate trajectory, crude oil price fluctuations, and global bond yields. While the last decade—spanning Samvat years 2072 to 2081—saw the Nifty and Sensex deliver compounded annual returns of approximately 12.6 percent and 12.5 percent, the current year begins under the shadow of potential external energy shocks. Analysts emphasize that while the long-term outlook remains promising, investors should deploy capital in stages rather than chasing short-term rallies.
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