Ahead of the forthcoming Quad leaders' summit in Manila, Beijing has signaled its firm opposition to the group's involvement in the South China Sea. State-backed media in China has characterized the upcoming meeting as a hasty geopolitical maneuver, warning the four participating nations—India, Japan, Australia, and the United States—against using the platform to address or internationalize maritime disputes in the region.
While an official, formal announcement regarding the summit remains pending, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has indicated that the leaders of the four nations will gather in the Philippines on the margins of the ASEAN summit, which is scheduled to commence on November 16. This meeting would represent the first time the Quad leaders have convened in two years, marking a notable shift in the group’s activity after a period of dormancy.
An opinion piece published in the Global Times, a Chinese state-backed outlet, criticized the revival of the bloc, referring to it as a "small circle" that the U.S. administration has "dusted off and brought back from the freezer." The publication stated that should these countries attempt to demonstrate an intention to interfere in the affairs of the South China Sea during the summit, China would be compelled to respond with resolute opposition. The summit takes place against a backdrop of intensified maritime tensions between China and the Philippines, a context that analysts suggest allows the United States to reinforce its presence in the Indo-Pacific.
For India, the summit represents a significant diplomatic event following the 2024 meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Kazan, which served as a catalyst for the potential normalization of Sino-Indian relations. India has consistently maintained that its participation in the Quad is based on a commitment to democratic values, the rule of law, and the shared goal of an inclusive and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.
The commentary in the Global Times also scrutinized India's diplomatic positioning, noting that New Delhi’s approach displays signs of "balance-of-power manoeuvring." According to the report, India is hesitant to jeopardize its improving relationship with China by aligning entirely with the containment strategies proposed by other Quad members. It further noted that India seeks to preserve its strategic autonomy, opting to use multilateral cooperation to foster industrial and economic development rather than strictly adhering to strategies designed by external powers to contain China.
The Global Times editorial emphasized that India continues to avoid making unilateral concessions regarding trade tariffs and market access, reflecting its desire to manage relations with both Quad partners and Beijing independently. As the leaders prepare to gather in Manila, the international community continues to observe how the Quad navigates its internal dynamics alongside the broader complexities of regional security and competing national interests in the Indo-Pacific.
The upcoming summit is expected to be closely watched, particularly as it coincides with President Donald Trump’s planned travel to China following the APEC summit in Manila. The alignment of these high-level diplomatic visits suggests that the coming weeks will be a critical period for assessing the evolving geopolitical landscape and the stability of relations between the major powers involved in the region.
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