Most parts of India are expected to experience slightly warmer weather throughout November, according to a forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday. The national weather agency stated that both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across a significant portion of the country for the duration of the month.
Alongside the rising temperatures, the IMD has issued a prediction for below-normal rainfall across most regions. However, the forecast offers a slight deviation for parts of central, northwest, and northeast India, where normal to above-normal precipitation is anticipated. Officials noted that this moisture would be particularly beneficial for wheat crops in rain-fed regions, including areas in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and parts of Maharashtra.
The outlook for peninsular India, however, remains a point of concern. The region, which typically relies on the northeast winter monsoon for significant rainfall during this time, is expected to see below-normal precipitation. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra reported that rainfall in the south peninsular region—covering Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikkal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Mahe, and south interior Karnataka—is likely to stay below 77 percent of its long-period average. For historical context, the long-period average for this region during November is 118.7 mm, based on data recorded between 1971 and 2020.
Adding to the current weather situation, the IMD is closely monitoring a depression over the southwest Bay of Bengal. Meteorological models indicate that the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by Sunday. It is projected to cross the coasts of southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu between Monday evening and Tuesday morning, bringing heavy rainfall to these coastal areas. Once it gains the strength of a cyclonic storm, the system will be officially designated as 'Murasu', a term derived from Tamil that signifies a traditional percussion instrument.
This month's outlook follows a particularly dry October, which recorded the sixth-lowest rainfall for the country since 2001 and the 25th-lowest since 1901. The national deficit for October stood at 31 percent, with total rainfall measuring 51.7 mm. The southern peninsula also saw a significant dip in rainfall during the same period, marking its sixth-lowest total for October since 2001.
As the month progresses, the IMD plans to continue its monitoring of both the temperature trends and the movement of the impending cyclone. The development of 'Murasu' and the potential impact on agricultural zones remain primary focus areas for the agency, which will provide updated warnings as the storm approaches the coast. Authorities in the affected states are expected to track these developments as they prepare for the expected heavy rainfall early in the coming week.
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