Recent analysis of commercial satellite imagery has indicated that Saudi Arabia is expanding its ballistic missile production facility at the al-Duwadimi complex, located approximately 125 miles west of Riyadh. According to findings published by researchers at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), the construction project suggests a capacity upgrade that could enable the manufacturing of larger, more powerful solid-fuel missiles. Such weapons could theoretically achieve greater flight ranges and carry heavier payloads than existing systems.
Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman, the researchers behind the assessment, identified a new, large building that appears to house casting pits. These structures are used to pour fuel components into missile motor casings, a critical step in solid-fuel missile production. The building, which is at least twice the size of existing casting pits at the site, is flanked by blast-diverting walls designed to protect surrounding infrastructure in the event of an accidental explosion. Construction at the site began as early as April 2025, with subsequent imagery from December 2025 and September 2026 documenting the progression of the roof and containment structures.
Solid-fuel systems are highly valued by military forces for their rapid launch capabilities and ease of long-term storage, providing a significant tactical advantage over liquid-fuel alternatives. Analysts, including experts from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the CNA research organization, have noted that the facility's characteristics and infrastructure closely resemble known Chinese missile production methods. There is a long-standing belief that Saudi Arabia has previously relied on Chinese technology for its missile programs, with the kingdom having acquired liquid-fuel DF-3 missiles from Beijing in 1987.
The strategic implications of this expansion are significant for regional security. Sascha Bruchmann, a research fellow at IISS, suggested that more capable, longer-range missiles would provide Saudi Arabia with a means to project power against Iran without the immediate need to risk manned aircraft, such as US-supplied F-15 jet fighters, against sophisticated air defense systems. The move is viewed as a potential effort to narrow the existing capability gap between the kingdom and Iran, which frequently employs its own missile and drone arsenals.
However, the prospect of an expanded Saudi missile program has raised concerns regarding broader regional stability. Analysts point out that other powers in the Middle East, including the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, are also pursuing enhanced offensive and defensive capabilities. Experts warn that this trend could trigger a regional arms race, potentially complicating the security architecture of the region.
The development also carries weight in the context of US-Saudi political relations. Within the United States, there is growing bipartisan congressional opposition to a proposed civilian nuclear agreement that would see the US assist Riyadh in establishing uranium enrichment infrastructure. Critics argue that the expansion of missile production capabilities could harden resistance to such a deal, as concerns persist about the potential for future nuclear proliferation. The Saudi embassy and the Ministry of Information have not responded to requests for comment regarding the facility's expansion.
Looking ahead, the evolution of the al-Duwadimi complex remains a point of intense scrutiny for international defense observers. As the infrastructure matures, researchers continue to track the site for further signs of progress toward the production of missiles like the DF-21 or similar high-range systems. The lack of official confirmation from Riyadh or its partners in Beijing leaves international analysts to rely on satellite intelligence to interpret the kingdom's long-term military ambitions.
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